Alberta picks university to cost out separation, panel to assess ahead of referendum

The Alberta government says it has picked the University of Calgary to study potential costs of the province leaving Canada.

The province has also formed what it calls an expert advisory panel to review the university’s report and provide an assessment.

The panel is led by economist Jack Mintz, a go-to expert for Alberta governments who has served on several advisory groups and panels in recent decades.

It also features business leaders and former politicians Janice MacKinnon, a Saskatchewan NDP finance minister, and Ted Morton, an Alberta Progressive Conservative finance minister.

The United Conservative Party government said in a news release that the panel’s involvement “will allow for further and potentially differing views to be shared, ensuring Albertans are equipped with all the facts.”

In 2001, Morton was a signatory to the infamous Firewall Letter sent by Stephen Harper, before he became prime minister, to then-Alberta premier Ralph Klein.

It called on Klein to take a number of steps to give Alberta more independence from Ottawa.

The province said the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy would “retain full and independent control over the final report.”

The school’s director, Martha Hall Findlay, said in the release that the school is pleased to do the analysis and she appreciates the independence.

Premier Danielle Smith and Finance Minister Jason Nixon have hinted at the report in recent weeks.

They said Albertans deserve to be informed ahead of the province’s Oct. 19 referendum, which will see Albertans vote on remaining in Canada or begin the process to have a second, binding vote on separation.

Smith has said she doesn’t think many of those in the separatist movement understand what separation would entail.

She estimated earlier this month that quitting Confederation could cost the province $400 billion — including Alberta’s share of the national debt, NATO commitments, forming armed forces and other startup costs — plus an annual price tag of up to $50 billion.

Separatist leaders have pushed back on Smith’s math, claiming that forming a new country would come with no more than $5.7 billion in startup costs and an independent Alberta would post surpluses once tax revenue stops going to Ottawa.

The province said the university’s report is to look at transition costs, economic impacts, risks and possible savings.

“Alberta’s government is committed to ensuring Albertans have access to objective, evidence-based analysis so they can be confident in their decision,” it said in the release.

It said the report is expected to be shared by the end of summer, so Albertans have time to consider it before the referendum.

Nixon’s office did not immediately respond to questions about how much the report will cost the government.