Bradford pitches a 'vision' for Toronto's budget. His opponents call it 'reckless'

Bradford pitches a 'vision' for Toronto's budget. His opponents call it 'reckless'

One expert says the idea would be a fundamental change to how Toronto plans its budgets

With less than a month until voters cast their ballots for Toronto's next mayor, Brad Bradford has unveiled a flurry of financial promises amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars.

A pledge to cut the land transfer tax on the first $1.1 million of all homes, another to spin the city’s water services into a new corporation and a plan to lean more heavily on debt all took centre stage over the past week, with critics accusing the mayoral candidate of making unfunded promises.

“Bradford’s debt scheme is reckless,” a news release from incumbent Olivia Chow’s campaign said on Thursday. “He is asking taxpayers to pay interest to big lenders and keeping secret which city services will get slashed, and how big the bill will be when the debts come due.”

The challenger, however, says his idea is modelled on how higher levels of government budget: borrowing to pay for infrastructure over decades instead of saving up to make a payment up front.

Peter Weltman, who served as the financial accountability officer of Ontario from 2018 to 2023, explained the shift would be a fundamental change to how Toronto has traditionally planned its finances.

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At its core, the plan would mean the city taking on more debt.

“Municipalities in Ontario have been run very conservatively and run basically on a pay-as-you-go system. So none of them really do this capital budget funding, debt funding to a great degree,” Weltman told CBC News.

“But it's important to examine it because there is no particular legislative reason why this option can't be done."

How will Bradford’s plan work?

Bradford’s campaign says he will be able to help fund his promises through a fundamental shift in how municipalities budget and borrow, cutting the amount of money diverted from property taxes into long-term savings for future projects.

Instead of saving that money, Bradford would keep it in the operating budget and give the city more to spend on daily costs. Lost funding for future projects would then be replaced, at least partially, through debt.

Bradford frames the move as a new philosophy for how cities pay for their plans.

“Elections are about big ideas, elections are about visions,” he said at a campaign event on Friday. “I'm presenting my vision and my big ideas for a safer, more affordable city.”

Brad Bradford promises property tax freeze if elected Toronto mayor

Mayoral candidate Brad Bradford promises to scrap land transfer tax on some Toronto homes

The idea comes up against strict rules that govern how much debt cities in Ontario are able to carry, which for most cities is capped at 25 per cent of reliable revenue.

Toronto aims to keep its debt service ratio below 15 per cent annually. The 2026 budget warns carrying too much debt could hurt the city's credit rating and ability to borrow.

“If a municipality’s current and projected debt levels appear high, it will have a negative impact on its credit rating,” the city’s latest finance document said. “On the other hand, if debt levels are low, this will have a positive impact.”

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Part of Bradford’s strategy is to set up a public utility company, separate from city hall, to handle Toronto’s water.

That would allow the city to move debt off its books and into a new entity, allowing Toronto to carry new debt for other projects.

“It will increase the city's ability to borrow because the city will not have whatever debt would be on the water, wastewater operation on its balance sheet,” Weltman said.

“But the city also gives up some revenue if they're moving the operation to a municipal services corporation. So it's complicated ... it depends on what problem the city is ultimately trying to solve.”

Critics say the numbers don’t add up

Bradford also hopes the new utility company will be able to turn profit while cutting fees for the people it serves. That profit would then be returned to the city of Toronto in the form of a dividend to be spent on other projects.

He suggested it could bring in as much as $125 million in 2028, a figure he acknowledged on Friday was not an ironclad guarantee.

“We've calculated that based on other jurisdictions, we think that's a realistic number,” he said. "It's an estimation based on precedents and projected revenue… we think it's pretty close to accurate.”

At the heart of Bradford’s argument is the suggestion that infrastructure should be treated like a house – making a down payment in cash and borrowing the rest of the money over its useful life.

Gord Perks, an ally of Chow who has seen dozens of city budgets, some he agreed with and others he was sharply critical of, says the comparison misses the mark.

“You want to use the analogy of a mortgage? Anyone who's ever got a mortgage knows that the more you can put in as a down payment, the better, because therefore your monthly payments are going to be lower,” he said in an interview.

"Brad's essentially saying no down payment at all.”

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The Bradford campaign has suggested it would target a split of 60 per cent debt on new infrastructure projects if it is able to implement the plan.

“That is the same approach Prime Minister Mark Carney has taken with the federal budget,” he said. “It is going to allow us to provide immediate affordability for small businesses, for families, for seniors.”

The comparison, Perks says, is misleading because provincial and federal governments are able to collect more money than Toronto and have wide-ranging taxation tools at their disposal.

If you’re looking for a detailed breakdown of how municipalities can raise revenue, the CBC’s Shawn Jeffords has an overview here.

Major policy proposal in key stretch of campaign

Bradford’s focus on financial announcements comes as the race to become Toronto’s next mayor enters its final month, the tail end of a campaign he has been running for close to a year.

Liaison Strategies’ principal David Valentin, who has been consistently polling the mayoral race, said many have already made up their mind.

“I think some of these policies likely would have served him better had they been deployed earlier, if he had had a chance to talk about these at length for the better part of the campaign,” he said.

Bradford rejected the idea his key financial ideas have come too late in the campaign.

“Not at all,” he said Friday. “In fact, if you follow my files and you follow my record, you will see that I have advocated to reduce or remove the land transfer tax on no less than four separate budgets.”

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Valentin also pointed out the announcements arrived at a point when the Chow campaign appears to have reduced its new policy proposals, leaving space for Bradford to break onto the airwaves.

“We are seeing her continue to campaign on her record, continue to campaign on capping transit fares,” he said.

“But, by and large, what you see is what you get with the mayor. And we're sort of learning more now about what Brad Bradford wants to do if he's elected.”

Advance voting starts Oct. 6 and election day is Oct. 26.

There are 53 candidates running to be mayor. You can find the full list on the city’s website.