Canada’s Immigration Exodus Kicks Off W/Record NPR Outflows

Canadian policymakers worried about temporary residents overstaying their visas can rest easy. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows that non-permanent residents left the country in record volumes in Q3 2024. New limits announced in Q4 has elected officials publicly voicing concerns that these residents may overstay their visas. However, that concern seems overblown considering the exodus of non-permanent residents reached its target outflow right before the changes were announced. Impeccable timing, as always.

Canada’s Non-Permanent Resident Outflow Hit 250k People In Q3

The quarterly volume of non-permanent residents that left Canada.

Source: Statistics Canada; Better Dwelling.

Canada is seeing a big uptick in non-permanent residents leaving the country. About 249.7k non-permanent residents left in Q3 2024, an 85% increase compared to last year. Canada only has data readily available going back to 2021, but it’s safe to say this is by far the largest outflow the country has ever seen in a single quarter.

Note this outflow was back in Q3 though, before the Government of Canada (GoC) made immigration changes. At the time, policymakers were still trying to attract more temporary residents and churn more people. Consequently, the net flow was still positive—296k more non-permanent residents arrived than left in the quarter. A decline of 35% from last year, but still positive.

However, this reveals that policymakers were already struggling with growth. Fewer arrivals to churn and a lot more people opted to leave instead of transitioning to other visas, which is historically why so many people come to Canada.

Canada Limits Temporary Residents, Expects Big Outflows This Year

Canada’s population has grown too quickly in recent years, and the GoC hopes to shrink it soon. Since 2021, it has grown 150% to 2.96 million people—a number virtually no country could easily accommodate. The population reduction plan primarily involves cutting ~450k non-permanent resident visas and not replacing much of the outflow.

Canada expects a whopping 1.2 million of these visas to expire this year. Up to a million of these visa holders won’t be eligible for permanent residency, with policymakers expressing fears of removing those who remain on expired visas.

It’s nice (or delusional?) that policymakers can’t imagine young adults voluntarily leaving Canada. However, that doesn’t appear to be a significant concern right now. The volume of people who left voluntarily in the quarter before the changes is already on target—assuming it doesn’t grow further. Perhaps it’s time to start shifting focus and ponder whether Canada still offers enough to retain domestic talent.