Danielle Smith’s popularity dips as her party now tied with NDP in support: poll

UCP sees support drop in Calgary by 10 points since the spring

New polling suggests both impressions of Premier Danielle Smith personally and support for her party are slipping in Alberta, with the UCP now essentially neck-and-neck with the opposition NDP.

The Janet Brown Opinion Research Poll for CBC News suggests 41 per cent of respondents would vote for the UCP if an election were held today, while 41 per cent would vote for the NDP.

In a similar poll conducted this spring, pollster Janet Brown said Smith’s government was enjoying the longest honeymoon period since the Ralph Klein-era.

“I think the UCP is having a struggle navigating this difficult situation that we're in right now,” said Brown. “Having a controversial referendum, the premier taking one position on the referendum [and] also trying to advocate for the nine other questions.”

Brown says it appears the party is shedding support on both sides of the independence debate: from separatists who wish Smith had taken a stance of support, and federalists frustrated by the question in the first place.

“She’s trying to walk the middle of the road, between the moderate, business conservatives and the far-right populist base that’s still angry over COVID restrictions,” said John Santos, data scientist with Janet Brown Opinion Research.

“And she’s getting hit by traffic on both sides of the road.”

With time running out, new poll suggests Alberta separatism support is slipping

The random survey of 1,200 Albertans was conducted between Sept. 8 and Sept. 21, with a margin of error of +/-2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The poll suggests the UCP has dropped eight points since April, while the NDP has seen its share of voter intention rise five points over that same time, putting the two parties at a tie.

“Obviously the NDP would take a lot of pleasure in seeing these numbers,” said Lisa Young, political science professor at the University of Calgary. “It suggests that they're on a trajectory that might make them competitive in the election.”

There’s also an increase in the number of respondents who say they would vote for another party, up six points since April, and the number of political “orphans” in the province: those who wouldn’t vote UCP or NDP, but also could not name which party they’d support instead.

Regionally since the April poll, the UCP saw a drop of 14 points in areas outside Calgary and Edmonton, and a drop of 10 points in Calgary.

“That would have surprised me, were it not for the Calgary-Shaw byelection,” said Brown. The NDP pulled out a victory in that byelection, claiming what had been a UCP riding.

Brown says the drop in UCP voter intention in Calgary is likely among those supporting the remain side, while rurally it reflects a drop in voter support from those who would vote to separate.

Young says the numbers mean Calgary should be a key battleground in coming months.

“But we're a year away from the election. If the referendum is in fact what's driving support away from the UCP, the government will have an opportunity to try to win that support back,” Young said.

And with the price of oil still high and the province’s finances looking to be in better shape, Young says that could give the government more money in the coffers to spend big and woo voters.

Albertans’ impressions of Danielle Smith have also soured slightly in recent months, with the poll suggesting a drop of six percentage points in those very or somewhat impressed with her, and a seven point increase in those not at all impressed with her.

Twenty-five per cent of respondents are very impressed with NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi, the poll suggests.

“What Albertans are saying is they're not feeling highly impressed with either of these leaders right now,” Brown said.

Carney’s popularity keeps rising

But the honeymoon period seems to be still going strong for Prime Minister Mark Carney in Alberta. Fifty-two per cent of respondents said they are very impressed with him, up six points since the last poll.

“We're in this strange universe where a Liberal Prime Minister is doing better than either the premier, or the leader of the Opposition here, and doing much better than the leader of the federal Conservative Party in terms of popularity,” Young said.

Young credits approval largely to Carney’s handling of trade tensions with the United States. He’s also likely benefitting from Albertans happy with his commitment to get a pipeline to the B.C. Coast, she says.

It’s a project Smith is, of course, also pushing for.

“I think there's a bit of an irony here that the MOU is working well for Mark Carney and his popularity, but Danielle Smith doesn't seem to be benefitting from her part in creating the MOU,” said Brown.

Brown notes favourability does not equal voter intention, and some Albertans might appreciate Carney’s style but still be unlikely to cast a ballot for the Liberals.

But Carney does boast a higher score than Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, with just 26 per cent of those polled saying they are very impressed with him.

"Which has got to be a concern for the Conservative Party, because this is the Conservative heartland,” Brown said.

The CBC News random survey of 1,200 Albertans was conducted using a hybrid method between Sept. 8 and Sept. 21, 2026, by Edmonton-based Trend Research under the direction of Janet Brown Opinion Research. The sample is representative of regional, age and gender factors. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For subsets, the margin of error is larger.

The survey used a hybrid methodology that involved contacting survey respondents by telephone and giving them the option of completing the survey at that time, at another more convenient time, or receiving an email link and completing the survey online. Trend Research contacted people using a random list of numbers, consisting of 30 per cent landlines and 70 per cent cellphone numbers.

Telephone numbers were dialed up to five times at five different times of day before another telephone number was added to the sample. The response rate among valid numbers (i.e., residential and personal) was 11.3 per cent.

Jennifer is a reporter with CBC Calgary. Previously, she worked for CTV News in Toronto. You can reach her at jennifer.keiller@cbc.ca