David Eby taps campaign manager as election speculation grows

David Eby taps campaign manager as election speculation grows

Multiple potential candidates, campaign managers say they've been asked by NDP to keep next 2 months open

The possibility of a fall provincial election is growing, as B.C.’s premier confirmed the B.C. NDP has selected a campaign manager.

Speculation about an election reached a fevered pitch at the Union of B.C. Municipalities convention on Tuesday, as councillors and political organizers traded notes about what they were hearing, and wondered how a provincial election might complicate local elections across the province taking place on Oct. 17.

Elections B.C. said it is conducting “preparatory activities,” including inquiring about space availability for voting places, restocking supplies and preparing to recruit election officials.

During a media availability Wednesday, Premier David Eby said the NDP has tapped Cheryl Oates as a campaign manager, in response to a question from CBC News. Oates previously served as Eby’s interim chief of staff.

“I shared with our caucus when Cheryl had stepped down that she would ultimately be the manager of the campaign whenever the next election campaign is in British Columbia,” Eby said.

“She’s run campaigns across the country and I have great faith in her ability to run a campaign like that.”

Could B.C. be heading for a snap election?

CBC News has spoken to multiple potential candidates and campaign managers who say they have been asked by the NDP to keep the next two months open in case an election is called.

But on Wednesday, Eby would not say whether he’s considering an election date this fall.

“I don’t have any election announcements to make,” he said. “We have continually told Elections B.C., I tell my caucus all the time, that we need to be election-ready.”

Eby noted the NDP government has a one-seat majority, following the death of MLA Joan Phillip.

MLAs Grace Lore and Brenda Bailey are battling cancer, but continue to work, Eby added.

Byelection set for riding where B.C. Conservative leader expected to run

When CBC News asked Elections B.C. if it is training elections officers and looking for voting locations, the agency said, in a statement, that it is their "responsibility to maintain a state of readiness to administer any provincial election that is called, whether it is a fixed date provincial election, a by-election, or an unscheduled general election.

"Based on the current landscape in B.C., timelines for procuring election materials in the face of global supply chain challenges, and recent public commentary and speculation, we have determined we need to assume an increased readiness state," Elections B.C. continued. "It is a regular practice for election management bodies to adjust their readiness state based on changes in the environment.”

The Victoria school district said in a statement it has been “put on notice by Elections B.C., inquiring about available space in schools for a possible upcoming provincial election."

CBC News has talked to several political strategists who say Eby could be considering a snap election to take advantage of the tumult within the B.C. Conservatives.

Nine MLAs have left the party since Kerry-Lynne Findlay became leader in May, and Findlay is running in a byelection for Abbotsford-Mission set for Sept. 26.

The election rumblings come as a new poll from Ipsos found that support for the B.C. Conservatives is at 35 per cent, 10 points behind the BC NDP.

That’s eight points down from where the party stood during the 2024 provincial election when it came within a few seats of forming government under former leader John Rustad.

NDP majority if election was today

The NDP would "certainly win" an election if it was held today, according to Kyle Braid, Ipsos senior vice president.

"They'd win a clear majority government, not really because they've built support, but because ... the Conservatives have literally fallen apart."

In addition to the troubles facing Findlay, Eby has also repeatedly said he wants to give the public certainty in advance of a potentially long trade war with the United States.

Can Kerry-Lynne Findlay keep B.C. Conservatives together amid caucus turmoil?

Speaking in Toronto yesterday during the Prime Minister’s investment summit, Eby did not close the door to an early election.

“Obviously we’ll keep all options on the table. But if we ever moved in that direction it would only be to ensure more stability for British Columbians.”

B.C. Green Party Leader Emily Lowan said an early election call would smack of political opportunism.

"I dont think British Columbians want to go to an election right now," said Lowan. "I do feel Premier Eby is probably reading the tea leaves and looking at the fracture and disintegration on the right and is wanting to extend his mandate, but that also comes with risk."

2 more B.C. Conservative MLAs quit caucus to sit as Independents

Eby has expressed regret at his handling of a similar situation in 2023 and 2024, when he explicitly ruled out calling an early election while the B.C. Conservatives were supplanting the B.C. United Party as the most popular opposition party in the province. Instead, he waited for the fixed election date in October 2024, by which point B.C. United had suspended their operations, and the NDP ultimately lost their majority.

“I think the fixed date fell on the worst possible date strategically for the NDP … and so I will acknowledge that I am not a great forecaster of when to call elections,” Eby said at an event earlier this year.

“That is not my strength in politics … I had someone say to me recently, Danielle Smith says, you know, you're getting screwed. Doug Ford says, I'm fighting for you. And David Eby says, I've got a great policy solution for you. We need to work on this.”

Katie DeRosa is the provincial affairs reporter for CBC British Columbia. She is based in Victoria. You can contact her at katie.derosa@cbc.ca.