'Good news and bad news:' What Thunder Bay, Ont., can expect related to air quality over next 36 hours

'Good news and bad news:' What Thunder Bay, Ont., can expect related to air quality over next 36 hours

Smoke to continue in city, surrounding communities with ongoing wildfires, AFFES says

Smoke in northwestern Ontario is expected to remain a challenge for Thunder Bay residents despite the temperature dropping to a high of 25 C on Thursday.

“Smoke is obviously the biggest concern for people in northwestern Ontario because of the forest fires to the northwest of Thunder Bay, and there’s good news and bad news,” said Peter Kimbell, a warning preparedness meteorologist with Environment Canada.

With an orange air quality warning in effect, Kimbell explained, the air is polluted and smoky, making it “hazardous for people’s health.”

“People who are the most vulnerable are the very young, the very old [and] people with health conditions. So if at all possible, they should stay inside and wear masks."

An orange warning is issued when the Air Quality Health Index is forecast to reach or has reached the highest-risk category (AQHI of 10+).

However, he said, there may be a slight improvement in air quality on Friday, as the wind might shift slightly to the south.

“We also have a 60 per cent chance of showers in the forecast, which is also good because the precipitation tends to scour the atmosphere of the smoke particles."

Nonetheless, Kimbell added, the wildfires are unlikely to go away, and if the wind shifts to the northwest again, the smoke would likely return.

'High to extreme’ fire hazard in the region

“The fire hazard is expected to remain high to extreme across the region over the next 36 hours,” said Victoria Lee, an information officer with Ontario’s Aviation, Forest Fire and Emergency Services (AFFES), in a written statement.

“Hot, dry and windy conditions are forecast throughout northwestern Ontario and may contribute to increased fire behaviour and fire intensity on existing fires.”

She said AFFES was deploying all available resources across the province.

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“Our focus continues to be on priority areas where fire suppression efforts are most likely to be successful, with top priorities being the protection of wildland firefighting personnel and public safety, critical infrastructure and capturing, where possible, new fires,” Lee said.

“Waterbombers and bucketing helicopters were active on multiple fires across the region yesterday [Wednesday], working to reduce fire intensity and slow fire growth.”

However, Lee said, the situation in the region is continuously changing.

“Several fires have grown significantly in the past 24 hours as dry, windy conditions in the northwest region persist,” Lee said.

“FireRanger crews, supported by waterbombers and bucketing helicopters, have had success suppressing smaller fires in parts of the region experiencing less intense fire behaviour.”

‘Crossing our fingers and hoping for a change’

Kimbell agreed it’s been “very dry this year.”

“April was actually fairly wet in the northwest, but May was about 25 to 50 per cent below normal precipitation, and June and the first half of July have been even drier than that,” Kimbell said.

“So it’s been very dry going forward, which is a very important part of why the forest fires have started.”

Forest fires in northwestern Ontario: What to know

However, with the showers on Friday, he said, the city will have a high of 21 C as opposed to the warm temperatures of late.

“Generally, tomorrow [Friday] we probably would expect five, maybe 10, millimetres in some areas, but most areas won’t get very much,” Kimbell said, adding that localized thunderstorms may at most get 20 to 30 millimetres.

Caution about triggering more thunderstorms

Despite the precipitation being welcome in the northwest to help put out the fires, Kimbell warned, it could trigger more thunderstorms.

“Thunderstorms, if they occur, produce a lot of rain, but they produce a lot of rain in a very localized fashion,” Kimbell said.

“So they’re not always terribly helpful because they’re not over a wide area and they also carry the risk of igniting more forest fires, which would generate more smoke.”

While the city will have to see what happens Friday, he said, Environment Canada doesn't expect significant precipitation on a sustainable basis going forward.

“Sunday, 30 per cent chance of showers, Monday, 40 per cent chance of showers, [but] no big dumps of a lot of rain. That’s what we need and we don’t see that in the future yet."

Nicky Shaw is a reporter for CBC Thunder Bay. She graduated with a Bachelor of Journalism and a minor in Environmental and Climate Humanities from Carleton University. Aligning with her passion for covering global environmental and humanitarian issues, she has worked to develop in-depth multimedia content that shares the diverse experiences of people in Northwestern Ontario.