'It's great news': Near full drought recovery predicted for New Brunswick

'It's great news': Near full drought recovery predicted for New Brunswick

Climate specialist predicts province will have nearly or entirely recovered from severe drought by next month

Drought conditions have improved significantly across the province thanks to a rainy spring season, and one agroclimate specialist says he’s optimistic the region will be almost or completely out of a drought state by early next month.

The most recent Canada Drought Monitor report from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada reflects conditions up to May 31, and shows no drought or abnormally dry conditions across most of the province.

Only one small section of the west-central region near Fredericton is still classified as in moderate drought.

Drought conditions beginning to ease across New Brunswick

This marks an improvement from April when more than half of the province was in moderate drought conditions.

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"We’ve seen really good moisture this spring, good conditions, less evaporation because it has been cooler and overall favourable conditions for drought recovery," said Trevor Hadwen, an agroclimate specialist with Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

Hadwen said soil moisture, streamflow and surface water supply has seen consistent improvement this spring, but the team managing the map wasn’t ready to classify the area as drought-free last month due to groundwater conditions.

Groundwater conditions are the last to recover after a severe drought event, as water can take months to infiltrate deep enough to reach wells.

"The long-term and the most severe drought we’ve seen in quite some time last fall was still impacting groundwater and some wells in the region," Hadwen said.

"I do anticipate significant improvement this month, as we have seen some of those conditions improve further and there doesn't seem to be much concern for drought in the region at this point."

Matthew Alexander, a senior environmental scientist with Fundy Engineering with a PhD in groundwater hydrology, said he’s cautiously optimistic about the summer ahead.

"It’s great news," Alexander said. "Compared to what we were experiencing last summer, we’ve considerably improved."

"People will notice that streamflows are a little higher than they were last fall when we were going into the winter."

He said New Brunswick residents who experienced issues with their wells last year are likely still encountering problems.

The latest report showed that northern New Brunswick saw above-normal precipitation, but below-normal precipitation was recorded in southern New Brunswick.

Environment Canada is still predicting a dry, hot summer, but Hadwen remains optimistic that improved drought conditions will persist as long as some precipitation remains in the forecast.

"The forecast isn’t always accurate, so at this point we’re looking at really good conditions — favourable for all the drought recovery we would have hoped for coming off of last year’s severe drought," Hadwen said.

He said the province is now in a position where it could sustain dry weather in short stints.

"We’re in a much more sustainable position versus going into the spring this year, we were very vulnerable to going back into another severe drought."

Hadwen said perennial crops including blueberries, tree fruits and forages were significantly impacted by last year’s drought and will likely take another year to recover.

"[They] are not going to have a full recovery right away because they were so stressed last year, so anticipate lower yields in some of those various crops," he said.

Isabelle Leger is a reporter based in Fredericton. You can reach her at isabelle.leger@cbc.ca