'Super El Niño' heating up Ontario fall temperatures

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A supercharged climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean is heating up fall temperatures all the way to Ontario.

But the "Super El Niño" could also lead to a milder winter across Canada and the threat of ice storms.

An El Niño occurs when water in the tropical Pacific Ocean becomes warmer than usual, which changes air movement in the atmosphere and affects weather patterns across the globe.

In early September, the World Meteorological Organization said this year's El Niño is "firmly established" and is expected to intensify in the coming months, and with a near 100% probability it will persist well into the new year.

"El Nino is being supersized before our eyes," UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a statement Sept. 3, warning of the potential for floods, drought and extreme heat around the globe.

"The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up. Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather."

Closer to home, temperature highs recorded in the Greater Toronto area at the tail end of the month have consistently been at or above 20ºC.

Temperatures are expected to dip slightly to the mid to high teens in the first two weeks of October, according to The Weather Network.

In addition to the warmer fall temps, it appears most of Ontario will see a milder-than-usual winter.

Connor Mockett, an Eastern Ontario storm chaser and weather forecaster, says this year's El Niño is located off the coast of Ecuador and Peru, adding that temperatures are up to 9C above normal in the tropical Pacific and have yet to hit its peak closer to the end of the year.

"More ice storms, to a certain extent, would be more possible in an El Nino year," Mockett said in his forecast as he compared it the last strong Pacific weather pattern that occurred in 1997, which led to the damaging January 1998 ice storms in Eastern Ontario.

"I'm not saying that's going to be the common theme this winter, but it is more possible in an El Niño year when things line up together with more warmth in the air."

Another El Niño event in 2015 saw Toronto reach 15C at 6 a.m. on Christmas Eve, five degrees warmer than Los Angeles.

That winter saw less snow and precipitation in Ontario as well as higher temperatures from a seasonal perspective.

Mockett's prediction for the winter months is warmer temperatures and less snow than in previous years, but he cautioned that nasty, wintry weather can still occur this season.

"We could still see some blockbuster snowstorms, some blockbuster cold temperatures," he said. "It could be -30ºC when you go to work one morning, there could be 30 centimetres of snow on the ground for one of your drive homes in the winter.

"We are in Canada, these things are going to happen somewhere across the country and not just in one specific spot."