Torontonians don't feel safe, despite positive data. Here's how the issue is shaping the city's election race

Torontonians don't feel safe, despite positive data. Here's how the issue is shaping the city's election race

Leading candidates paint different pictures of crime and safety as the mayoral race heats up

Crime is down in Toronto. So why are Toronto voters on edge?

A series of high-profile, visually shocking crimes grabbed headlines in Toronto over the past year, even as data from police shows serious crime is down and the city is broadly getting safer.

Now, public safety is emerging as a key consideration for voters ahead of the Oct. 26 election.

Public opinion polling appears to indicate that, even if Toronto is statistically safer, they are still concerned about the issue ahead of voting day.

There was a shooting at the Salsa on St. Clair street festival in July, two at the United States Consulate in downtown Toronto in March and July, as well as a slew of videos released by police showing cars being stolen.

Quito Maggi, CEO of Mainstreet Research, said the number of people recording incidents on their devices and posting them to social media only makes the perception of violence worse.

"There might be one incident on a subway, but you’re going to see it from 18 different angles," he said.

His company released a survey earlier this month that found 52 per cent of people polled felt crime and safety was extremely or very important in the election. Almost 70 per cent of respondents said they were extremely or very worried about the issue.

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But most statistics show crime is down.

Data from Toronto police shows the vast majority of safety indicators are trending in the right direction.

In 2024, Olivia Chow’s first full year in office, total incidents were down 3.6 per cent year-over-year — driven by a 23 per cent drop in auto thefts, and 10 per cent drop in break and enters. The other 5 categories increased.

For 2025, assault was down three per cent, auto theft dropped 23 per cent and break and enters were down 11 per cent, according to police data.

Sexual violation crimes fell around 11 per cent, homicide dropped almost 50 per cent — with theft over the only category creeping up.

A divide over Toronto’s crime and safety

Jeffrey Dvorkin, former journalism professor at the University of Toronto, said he felt social media and news coverage of crimes distorted the public’s view of how safe the city is.

"News organizations are being stripped of their resources and that forces [them] — both print, broadcast and online — to concentrate on the low hanging fruit of local news which is weather, traffic, crime," he said in an interview with CBC News.

"I think the combination of the internet feeding us the stuff we don’t need and the politicians terrifying us ... that's the difficulty we’re finding ourselves in now."

Jones Santiago, a Toronto resident, agreed people may be scared by reporting of other people’s experiences, rather than their own.

"I think people are scared of what everything looks like, but not actually interacting with it and seeing if it is something dangerous," he said.

Public safety emerging as a key debate in Toronto's mayoral race

Bradford leans into public concerns

As the incumbent, Chow’s campaign is treading a fine line, trying to tout the success of the past three years, and promise things will get better still.

Bradford, the challenger, has cast a city that is struggling — even regressing — and failing to live up to its potential.

"Come here to Union Station, take a walk down Bay Street under the underpass, visit Yonge and Dundas Square," one video posted to his social media says. "It’s dirty, it’s unsafe."

Asked about the mismatch between perception and Toronto police’s statistics, Bradford said people in Toronto continue to feel unsafe.

"Community safety indicators across the board are not going down. There are some files where we have seen year-over-year improvement, but trends over the past decade are still up," he said at a recent campaign event.

"I think people feel less safe because they experience it in their day-to-day lives, they experience it in the transit system, they see it in the community centres, they see it in the parks … we have a lot of room to improve safety in the city."

Chow, who has been mayor for the past three years, touted her record, while acknowledging there are those who still feel unsafe.

"It is important to feel safe," she told reporters in Scarborough Monday. "Yes, the numbers have trended downwards, we have the lowest murder rate in 50 years, but if you just had a car stolen … you will feel not so safe."

Alex Barker, who stopped to speak to CBC News in the Leslieville area, said feelings of safety depends on where you are.

"There’s so many dangers in the city … it’s all a matter of perspective," she said.

"If you’re walking down Yonge Street you’re going to see [trouble] a lot more often than not, or down Queen Street. Down by Greenwood or Jones and Gerrard you won’t see it as often … but safety in the city is kind of here and there."

Candidates spar over auto theft

On Tuesday, Bradford’s campaign pushed a news release pointing to statistics for some crimes in Toronto that slipped in 2026.

So far this year, police data says assault is up by around one per cent, while auto thefts have risen by six per cent. As of September, 323 more vehicles have been stolen this year than the year before.

"Ask anyone who has walked out to an empty driveway what it feels like. It isn't a statistic. It's a violation," Bradford wrote in the news release.

"Your car is how you get to work, how you get your kids to daycare, how you get your parents to their appointments," he said. "Someone came onto your property in the night and took it. Then come the weeks on the phone with the insurance company, the rental you can't afford, and premiums that go up for every driver on your street. The Mayor's response to all of that is to tell you the numbers are down. They aren't."

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Hours later, the Chow campaign pushed back — pointing out auto theft is down since her election, even if it is up this year.

"In the five years after Brad Bradford was elected to Toronto City Council, auto thefts skyrocketed by 157 per cent. He did nothing about it," according to a statement from the incumbent’s campaign.

"Since Olivia Chow was elected Mayor in 2023, they’ve gone down by 41 per cent."

There are 53 candidates running to be mayor. You can find the full list on the city’s website.