Trump wants allies to do more for Ukraine. Experts say Canada can only go so far

Canada has made a 100-year promise to Ukraine. The harder question is what Ottawa can do for Kyiv right now.

Prime Minister Mark Carney and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a 100 Year Partnership Declaration in Calgary on Thursday, setting out plans for deeper ties on defence, reconstruction, energy, technology and trade. Canada also announced about $350 million for critical air-defence interceptors and nearly $435 million in loan guarantees to support Ukraine's energy security amid its fight with Russia.

The agreement comes as Canada and European allies are carrying more of the financial burden for Ukraine. NATO says European members and Canada now fund the vast majority of security assistance, even as some of the weapons Kyiv needs most still come from the United States.

U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly pushed allies to shoulder more of the cost of supporting Ukraine. In July 2025, he said European countries would pay for U.S.-made weapons sent to Kyiv, saying Washington was "not buying it" and that allies would foot the bill. More recently, on Sept. 3, Trump said he would seek reimbursement from Europe for earlier U.S. military assistance.

That leaves a fairly blunt question: if Washington wants its allies doing more, how much of the gap can Canada actually fill?

Canada can spend more. Replacing the U.S. is harder

Andres Kasekamp, a professor at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, doesn't think Canada, or any one ally, can simply step into Washington's place.

"No one can really make up for the United States," Kasekamp told Yahoo News Canada.

Aurel Braun, a University of Toronto professor of international relations and political science, made essentially the same point.

"Canada cannot be a substitute for the United States. No one can."

Part of the problem is hardware.

Canada's new air-defence funding will flow through the U.S.-run JUMPSTART mechanism, which allows allies to finance American equipment for Ukraine. NATO has a similar system through PURL: allies pay for packages of U.S.-made weapons and ammunition that Washington can provide in greater quantities than Europe and Canada alone.

So Canada can put up more money. Producing substitutes for some of those American capabilities is another matter.

Kasekamp said countries are trying to build alternatives, but that "will take years, and Ukraine needs all this assistance immediately."

Braun sees the same gap between ambition and capability.

"Our promises are moving at super speed. Our policies are moving at a glacial pace," he said.

What a 100-year promise can still do

That doesn't make the new partnership meaningless.

Canada and Ukraine plan to deepen cooperation on drones, counter-drone technology, ammunition, intelligence and cyber defence. The declaration also commits both countries to work toward a broader strategic partnership covering reconstruction, economic growth and people-to-people ties.

For Kasekamp, the unusually long timeline matters in its own right.

"This war is not only being fought on the battlefield, but it's also a war of narratives," he said.

His argument is that a century-long commitment sends Moscow a message that Canada expects Ukraine to survive as an independent state, and that support for Kyiv is meant to outlast the politics of any single government.

That longer view also fits with Carney's reconstruction push. Canada says it has already provided more than $750 million for Ukraine's recovery and reconstruction, while the new partnership calls for closer work on infrastructure, energy and investment.

Kasekamp's concern is what happens before that rebuilding begins.

"But Ukraine has to survive now," he said.

Air defence remains one of Kyiv's most urgent needs as Russian missile and drone attacks continue. Ukraine is seeking around 1,000 additional Patriot interceptors through allied contracts and has asked partners to release more missiles from existing stockpiles while those longer-term orders are filled.

That is where Canada's larger role runs into its limits.

Ottawa can finance more weapons, expand domestic production and make commitments that stretch decades into the future. But some of the military systems Ukraine needs today still depend heavily on U.S. supply.

For now, Canada stepping up does not mean replacing Washington. It means taking on more of the load while that dependence remains.