Trump's planned potash deal with Belarus to thwart Canada not so easy: analysts

Trump's planned potash deal with Belarus to thwart Canada not so easy: analysts

As U.S. President Donald Trump works on a deal to buy potash from Belarus to lessen dependence on Canadian fertilizer, industry analysts say the proposal would likely be difficult and costly.

"President Trump says a lot of things," said Erin Weir, an economist who studies potash and a former Saskatchewan NDP member of Parliament.

"Belarus is one of the major potash producers, but I don't think it has some stock of potash in reserve that President Trump is going to be able to access."

Trump announced the would-be agreement with Belarus in a social post Monday.

He said prices would be "substantially less" than what American buyers pay Canadian exporters and "very good news" for American farmers and ranchers. Potash is a key component of fertilizers used by farmers.

Belarus, a close Russian ally, has aided Moscow in its attacks on Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion four years ago. Potash prices skyrocketed after the invasion but have come down since, though they remain above prewar levels.

Weir said there are logistical problems with getting Belarusian potash to the United States.

For starters, he said, Belarus doesn't have a lot of extra potash lying around for sale.

There are also issues with transporting it out of the landlocked country that no longer has access through its neighbour, Lithuania, which has closed border crossings, he added.

Saskatchewan, the world's largest producer of potash, has the advantage of being on the same continent as the United States, said Weir.

"It's possible for us to put potash on trains to the American states that are growing corn," he said. "That's a lot easier than trying to ship potash to an American port and then put it on trains."

Even President Alexander Lukashenko has acknowledged his country's limitations.

He said in a Monday news release that Belarus can't supply the United States with large volumes of potash.

"Even if we wanted to supply (potash) to other, Western markets, we simply do not have those volumes — everything is contracted," Lukashenko said.

Trump's comment on potash comes as both Canada and the United States are embroiled in a trade war with tit-for-tat tariffs on a wide range of products.

While potash remains exempt from U.S. levies, Trump has said his country doesn't need Canadian goods, even though Canada supplies it with critical resources that it doesn't produce.

A report from the U.S. Geological Survey says the United States imported 80 per cent of its potash from Canada from 2021 to 2024, followed by smaller number of imports from Russia, Israel and other countries.