What makes Harry Kane a devastating finisher, according to the data

Harry Kane is a devastating finisher, with five goals through four games in the World Cup. England will need his offense Sunday against Mexico, which has yet to concede a goal in the World Cup.

However, the data shows that Mexico hasn’t faced the quality of shots that Kane typically unleashes.

In Mexico’s four games, 44% (14 of 32) of shots against were outside the box. What’s more, the total xG — expected goals — of those 32 shots is 2.0, meaning that Mexico’s opponents were only expected to score two goals combined across the four games, based on the quality of their chances. Kane’s total xG of 2.3 in the World Cup is higher than the 2.0 total xG of the shots Mexico has faced.

Kane has continually found ways to put himself in great goal-scoring positions in the tournament. Now, the question is whether he can lift England again, and keep Mexico from recording a fifth consecutive clean sheet.

Kane has been a central figure in England’s attack through the first four games. He typically stayed close to the ball to receive short passes as his team built up the offense. But as England moved closer to its attacking goal, he found his way into the box, where he received longer passes, often crosses, to finish scoring chances. The graphic below shows all the passes Kane received in the first four games.

In England’s first knockout stage match against Congo, Kane delivered with two late goals, propelling his country into the World Cup Round of 16.

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The graphic below shows Kane’s shot map across his four matches. He scored primarily from the center of the box, netting goals using both feet and his head. The total xG on his 18 shots is 2.3, meaning that, with five goals, he has more than double the goals you’d expect based on the quality of his shots.

Data analysis provided by Brennan Klein, director for Northeastern University’s NetSI Sport research group.

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