Which mayoral candidate has the best digital campaign?

Social media has become an integral part of modern political campaigns, and the Ottawa mayoral race is proving to be no exception.

The four main candidates – incumbent Mark Sutcliffe, perceived main challenger Jeff Leiper, and newbies Neil Saravanamuttoo and Alex Lawson – are fighting it out on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter and Bluesky to expand their reach to those who inhabit the digital world.

And who might be winning this battle? Mark Sutcliffe, of course. But he is winning not because of some extraordinary digital genius, but simply because of the power of incumbency.

Being mayor for four years, combined with the reach that comes with it, is no match for his rivals, says Evan Potter, a University of Ottawa communications professor. Sutcliffe's online presence began the moment he entered office, and he has been mastering it since then. He has used Facebook, Twitter and other platforms skilfully to announce policies, reach out to people in time of distress, and launch campaigns on behalf of the city. And in that process, he's amassed contact information that is gold in an election campaign.

Potter says Sutcliffe's most powerful online weapon may be the "Team Ottawa" email addresses he has gathered over the years as mayor. However, Sutcliffe really doesn't need a great digital campaign to win because he has incumbency, the better ground game and the ears of the legacy media. A digital campaign is just another tool in his box.

But, for Saravanamuttoo and Lawson, it is a necessity. That's simply because they don't have a powerful enough ground game to develop name recognition across 24 wards, Potter says. So, both have developed considerable online presence that relies significantly on videos to lay out positions, amplify, messages and expand their reach.

Here, Saravanamuttoo has an advantage because his videos are "edgier and sharper," Potter says. He points to Saravanamuttoo's Gaza video in which he calls the Gaza war a "genocide," and promises to raise the Palestinian flag at City Hall, if elected. Potter says he was expecting a major backlash, but surprisingly, it never came. Instead, the Gaza video went viral, gave Saravanamuttoo name recognition, and exposed him to a large pool of voters who may not have heard of him.

And what about Leiper? Unfortunately, he seems to have fallen off the digital bandwagon. He has basically gone missing in the digital battle of the mayoral campaign. "Sadly, for Leiper supporters, his digital campaign is surprisingly flat," says Potter, who has been tracking the online campaigns. "At this stage, it is too late for Leiper to up his game on the digital front… Leiper's digital doesn't have the scale that is necessary for it to make a meaningful impact on his final vote count."

If Leiper is to win, Potter says, it must come from "an incredible ground game" to pull in the votes. No one knows if he is capable.

So, is Sutcliffe on his way to a second term? Not necessarily, says Potter. In municipal campaigns, digital presence is good, but not defining. What matters is all, or a combination of incumbency, name recognition and a strong door-to-door campaign. A good digital campaign can bring mass exposure to no-name candidates, but that alone is not enough to win elections.

Potter says the only reason digital campaigns may now matter is that the election has become a four-way race that "promises interesting vote splits." This is why Lawson could benefit from a strong digital showing. If, as the polls say, Lawson now has the support of 26 per cent of voters, a strong digital campaign could catapult him into the high-20s, and cause Sutcliffe an enormous headache. Sutcliffe may end up winning but with a smaller margin than 2022.

Of course, a win is a win and Sutcliffe would take it no matter how it comes. But what that would do to his self-belief, and how such a victory would be viewed across the city and by council colleagues, is anybody's guess.

Mohammed Adam is an Ottawa journalist and commentator. Reach him at nylamiles48@gmail.com

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