Will the U.S. midterm results affect Trump's tariffs on Canada? Democrats think yes

Democrats say winning could bolster oversight, but Trump's tools can ignore Congress

What U.S. politicians are saying about the trade war with Canada

Although Canada and the United States remain entrenched in their trade war positions, some Democratic politicians say a strong showing for their party in the upcoming U.S. midterm elections in November will make a difference in the fight.

"I think it'll send a message to the White House and to other Republicans that this type of tariff, especially with close friends, is just not something that Americans want," Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego said in an interview on Rosemary Barton Live that aired Sunday morning.

"This is just a tax, right?" Gallego told host Rosemary Barton. "We are adding a tax on a lot of goods that are coming from Canada that are unnecessary."

As it stands, Republicans control the White House and both chambers of Congress. The party has given U.S. President Donald Trump wide latitude to impose his tariffs agenda, even if some politicians are quietly concerned that the escalation could impact their re-election chances.

Gallego argued that if Trump's tariffs are in the service of reindustrializing the U.S., it's not working and instead antagonizes close allies who have helped the country in tough times.

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The U.S. senator also said he's very worried about his state's aerospace manufacturing sector, which relies on Canadian steel and aluminum that are currently subject to Trump's tariffs.

According to a report from TD Bank released last month, there has been a slight manufacturing rebound in the U.S., but "elevated energy costs, tariff-related input pressures, and tighter financial conditions are likely to limit the breadth and durability of the expansion."

"As a result, manufacturing should remain a modest contributor to growth, but the evidence does not yet point to a self-sustaining or economy-wide industrial resurgence," the report added.

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Maine Gov. Janet Mills told Barton in a separate interview that if the Democrats win both chambers, it will "throw a wrench in the works" for the president since Congress can "take back their power over taxation and tariffs."

That said, the legal mechanism Trump used to impose his latest round of tariffs is Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 (also known as the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act), which authorizes the president to impose duties if a country discriminates against U.S. commerce relative to other countries.

But unlike previous tools, like Trump's "Liberation Day" Section 122 tariffs, there are no checks and balances for Section 338 tariffs. Some members of Congress introduced a bill last month trying to repeal Section 338 entirely.

Still, Mills said that anti-Trump sentiment is building in the U.S. over the economy, suggesting political pressures could get the president to back down or motivate him to cut a deal.

"It's not good, and it's not heading in a good direction, and it's on his watch and because of his actions," she said.

On Saturday, Trump told reporters in Ireland that he could reach a trade deal with Canada "fairly soon" and reiterated his claim that Canada discriminates against U.S. dairy farmers — a shot at the supply management system.

Trump's next move in the trade fight is banning the import of Canadian alcohol, motorcycles and various other products into the U.S. beginning Sept. 29. He also intends to slap new 50 per cent duties on other products this week.

Plus, Trump said last week he is directing the General Services Administration (GSA) — the independent agency that oversees federal government procurement — to remove Canadian-origin products from its "multiple award schedules."

While the General Services Administration's preferential purchase program accounts for roughly $50 billion US worth of procurement per year, only 58 Canadian companies were granted contracts through the program in 2024-25, the most recent fiscal year with details available, according to information extracted from a GSA database by CBC News.

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At the moment, Canada is sticking with its counter-tariffs on $27.6 billion worth of American goods that went into effect on Tuesday. The duties range from 15 to 50 per cent, with the harshest targeting industries the U.S. has focused on, such as steel, dairy and wood products.

But certain comments from federal ministers suggest relations may not be icy. On Friday, Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc told reporters he texted his condolences to U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, whose brother died in the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

Gallego, the Arizona senator, said the two sides need to figure out how to mutually step down from the current trade tensions, adding that it appeared both Trump and Prime Minister Mark Carney were playing politics when trade talks fell apart last month.

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"I'm not asking Mr. Carney to just bend at the knee and give in, but this is the role of diplomacy," Gallego said. "You figure out how to actually start bringing the heat down little by little to a point where you can get to the negotiation table."

Likewise, Maine's governor, Mills, said there need to be "serious negotiations on both sides," and she hopes a third party can sit down with the two countries and make it clear a tariff fight damages both of them.

"The retaliatory tariffs, I can understand why that's happening," Mills said. "I can't say it's not damaging our economy, though."

Benjamin Lopez Steven is an associate producer for CBC's The House and a digital writer with CBC Politics. He was also a 2024 Joan Donaldson Scholar and a graduate of Carleton University. You can reach him at benjamin.steven@cbc.ca or find him on X at @bensteven_s.

With files from Brock Wilson, Arielle Piat-Sauvé, Racy Rafique