Canada West Foundation: What Albertans need to consider

On October 19, 2026, Albertans will vote in a provincial referendum that raises a serious question about Alberta's future and its place within Canada.

Whatever your view on separation, this is not a decision that should be made lightly. The implications would be significant, not only for Alberta, but for the country as a whole.

I spent a lot of time considering whether the Canada West Foundation should wade into this discussion.

We are non-partisan, but we are not apolitical. For more than 50 years, the foundation has examined public policy issues that matter to Western Canada and to Canada. In fact, the conversations that helped give rise to the Canada West Foundation were rooted in questions about how Confederation was working for Western Canadians and how regional voices could be better reflected in national decision-making.

That history matters. Our role is not to tell Albertans what conclusion they should reach. It is to help people understand the implications of the choices before them.

When the Government of Alberta decided to hold a referendum on separation, we concluded that this was exactly the kind of issue the Canada West Foundation should examine.

That is why we are launching an important research initiative on what Albertans need to consider before they vote.

Over the coming months, we will bring together economists, academics and policy practitioners with expertise in fiscal federalism, trade, public finance, constitutional law and other relevant fields to examine different dimensions of Alberta separation. Their work will culminate in a comprehensive report, to be released around Labour Day, on the economic, legal and constitutional implications of separation.

The contributors will not agree on everything. Nor should they. Good public policy work is strengthened by diverse perspectives, rigorous debate and a willingness to test assumptions. Our goal is not to reach a predetermined conclusion. It is to help people better understand the issues.

Alberta did not arrive at this moment overnight.

Many Albertans have long-standing frustrations with the way the federation functions. Those concerns include federal energy and climate policy, interprovincial trade barriers, fiscal fairness and the challenges of getting Western Canadian products and resources to global markets. There is also a widely held belief that Western Canada's economic contribution is not always matched by its influence in national decision-making.

People will disagree about the causes of those frustrations and about what should be done in response. But dismissing them outright is neither productive nor constructive.

At the same time, Albertans deserve a clear understanding of what separation could mean in practice. Public debate is already being shaped by competing claims about the costs, risks and opportunities. Some predict prosperity. Others predict disaster. Most people are left trying to determine which claims stand up to scrutiny.

That is where independent research can make a contribution.

Whether we like it or not, Albertans have a significant decision ahead of them. They will need to review the information available, have conversations with friends and family and come to their own conclusions.

But this should not be only an Alberta conversation.

The referendum may take place in Alberta, but the implications extend far beyond provincial borders. Questions about economic competitiveness, regional fairness and the future of the federation affect Canadians from coast to coast.

No single report will answer every question, and reasonable people will continue to disagree. That is part of democracy. But we will look beyond the slogans, assumptions, emotions, and political resentment as decisions are always better when they are informed by evidence, context and a clear understanding of the trade-offs involved.

That is the contribution the Canada West Foundation hopes to make.

Gary Mar is president and CEO of the Canada West Foundation. This is the first in a series of guest columns from the Canada West Foundation on the topic of Alberta separation.