Far right gains ground in Europe, as Canada pivots from Trump to EU

Far right gains ground in Europe, as Canada pivots from Trump to EU

EU's 2 largest member states see growing pushback to the union at home

Prime Minister Mark Carney appealed to common values like democracy and reliability when he called for deeper trade and defence ties at the European Parliament earlier this month.

But some experts say with the rise of far-right parties on the continent, key European allies may not always share those values — and Canada should keep that possibility in mind as it crafts its alliances.

Canada is diversifying its trade relationships around the world amid U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs and trade war. But many far-right politicians in Europe share Trump's views on migration, isolationism and minority groups, say political scientists.

"In Europe, there are threats to liberal democracy coming primarily from populist far-right parties," said Achim Hurrelmann, a political scientist and co-director of the Centre for European Studies at Carleton University.

"Trump is seen positively by not all, but many far-right politicians in Europe."

In Germany, which just signed an intelligence-sharing deal with Canada, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) made key gains in regional elections earlier this month. AfD's policies are nationalist and isolationist. The German intelligence service classifies the party as extremist — and possibly a threat to democracy. Yet the party is polling strongly while centre-right Chancellor Friedrich Merz is battling record-low approval ratings among voters.

It was an AfD parliamentarian who chanted "U.S.A.!" when Carney took to the podium in Strasbourg, France.

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In France, Marine Le Pen's National Rally (RN) quadrupled its seats in the French Senate this month. Le Pen — who holds some similar views to Trump, including on immigration and a skepticism of international organizations like the EU and United Nations — is running to be France's president in next year's election.

"France and Germany are two key leaders of the European Union, and so their leadership plays an oversized role," says Terri Givens, a political scientist at the University of British Columbia.

EU countries are governed on multiple levels — domestically and within the union — which Givens says may be effective in mitigating the impact of an ascendant far right.

But, she says, it'll be important to watch for shifting domestic political winds, to avoid a future breakdown in economic ties and talks.

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Givens expects the other German parties to continue their coalition blocking the AfD from controlling the legislature — limiting its power at the federal level.

But the AfD's successes in provincial elections indicate they could become more influential, she says: "It's kind of chipping away at the edges."

In France, there's a higher likelihood that Carney could soon be sitting across from Le Pen at the G7 and other gatherings of major leaders. Recent polls suggest she has a real chance at winning the election in May to replace outgoing President Emmanuel Macron.

Global Affairs Canada did not respond by deadline to questions about how Canada is reacting to these recent developments.

If Canada has learned anything from dealing with Trump, it's that allies can quickly change how they treat their friends. It's a lesson Carney should keep in mind as he deepens relationships with European countries, too, says Hurrelmann.

That means forging stronger alliances with as many partners as possible — so the government never has to rely on any one trade partner as much as it did with the U.S.

On the one hand, that requires relationship-building with individual EU member states, particularly in areas like energy, strategic minerals or defence where those governments still hold significant decision-making power, Hurrelmann says.

"We need to have good relations with member states to actually breathe life into these agreements, and make sure that actual business contracts or defence collaborations emerge out of them," he said.

On the other hand, Hurrelmann says, Canada should take advantage of the EU's relative stability as an institution, which he says is less likely to shift as quickly as individual states.

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"In Europe, there has been a trend towards the far right, but certainly not in the same intensity in all countries," he said.

The makeup of the European Parliament is a good example of this stability, he said: while some countries shift to the right, other countries shift to the left.

"Europe as a whole, I would see as a continent that will continue to adhere to liberal democratic values," Hurrelmann said.

Canada should also make itself indispensable if it wants to make sure shifting political winds in Europe do not destabilize new alliances, says Givens.

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Canada's wealth of raw materials like critical minerals is one piece of leverage for that end: European countries have a growing demand for critical minerals, and Canada has them in rich reserves.

Another important factor, Givens says, is Canada's reputation as a reliable partner in an increasingly volatile world.

"It can play a role as the beacon of democracy, rule of law," Givens said. "And in a sense, that's what makes Canada indispensable."

Jennifer Yoon covers the latest national and international news for CBC News on television, radio and digital. You can reach her at jennifer.yoon@cbc.ca.