How Paraguay knocked Germany out of the World Cup, according to the data

Paraguay defeated Germany 4-3 in a shootout in the World Cup Monday, marking one of the tournament’s biggest upsets. The victory vaulted lower-ranked Paraguay — No. 41 in FIFA’s rankings into the round of 16. That not only kicked No. 10 Germany out of the tournament but also gave the country its first ever penalty shootout loss in World Cup history.

The data underscores Paraguay’s strategy against Germany: a sturdy defense, and sustained pressure to force turnovers. And it worked. Paraguay conceded only one goal in regulation. (A Germany goal in extra time was disallowed by VAR, sparking controversy.)

Paraguay packed in around the scoring box and forced Germany to attempt many more crossing passes from the flanks than it typically does. Germany attempted 32 crosses against Paraguay, much higher than its 12.3 average in the group stage. The graphic below shows all the crosses Germany attempted against Paraguay. While one cross did lead to Germany’s lone goal in regulation, the shot had a very low xG of 0.06; xG, or expected goal, is a metric that measures the quality of scoring chances.

Paraguay, for its part, is among the top pressing teams in the tournament, forcing 48.2 turnovers per 90 minutes (not including extra time), the fifth most of any team. Interestingly, however, it only took Germany an average of 8.5 seconds to regain possession following a turnover, compared to the 20 seconds on average it took Paraguay.

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Still, Paraguay’s pressure left its mark on the match, including on the country’s only goal in regulation. Paraguay took a corner kick, which Germany’s goalkeeper knocked out of the scoring box toward midfield. Paraguay then beat Germany to the ball to make a sliding pass to a teammate, which kept the ball in scoring range for Paraguay, leading to a cross that was headed in for a goal. The graphic below shows the progression of that play.

Paraguay’s approach offers a blueprint for how lower-ranked teams can try to topple stronger, higher-ranked opponents — sit deep, stay disciplined, and wait for opportunities to strike. It’s a style Bosnia-Herzegovina could use against the United States on Wednesday, or Cape Verde could try against Argentina on Friday.

Data analysis provided by Brennan Klein, director for Northeastern University’s NetSI Sport research group.

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