Is Optimism for Artificial Intelligence Boosting Investment?

FEDERAL RESERVE RESEARCH: San Francisco, St. Louis

U.S. business spending related to artificial intelligence (AI) grew substantially in 2025 among publicly traded firms, which account for the bulk of overall investment. Analyzing sentiment data from quarterly company earnings calls can help infer current and evolving optimism towards AI. Public firm data show growth in capital spending and research and development funding has come entirely from the largest companies that are positive about AI. While market concentration among large firms raises some challenges, optimism measures suggest that AI investment will continue to contribute to future overall investment growth.