Shale gas carries major risks and rewards for Holt Liberals

Shale gas carries major risks and rewards for Holt Liberals

Budget deficit, social programs, trade war, Tantramar gas plant all linked to potential development

More than a decade after shale gas extraction became a political liability in New Brunswick, it’s re-emerging as a potential lifeline for another debt-and-deficit-laden government.

The Holt Liberals are leaning into the upside on several fronts as they launch a five-month review of the moratorium on hydraulic fracturing announced last week.

“How much would it help us to fund what we all need, like collaborative health-care clinics in your communities or better health-care access or help in paying the bills?” Natural Resources Minister John Herron said, identifying a key question the review will try to answer.

An appreciation of the political risk was also clear at the announcement: the government would have to be “certain” it would be safe, Herron said, or “it wouldn’t be done at all.”

The Progressive Conservative government of David Alward faced major protests in 2013 over gas exploration work by a U.S. company.

Opponents warned of health and environmental risks. Alward bet his re-election on shale gas and other resource initiatives and lost.

And yet, the day after Premier Susan Holt’s announcement last week, Finance Minister René Legacy brought up shale gas development again as he released a new projection of a $1.7 million deficit this year.

In that update, the Liberals again avoided major spending cuts.

Legacy pointed to $15.7 million in savings from eliminating more than 200 vacant government jobs.

But that was dwarfed by $108.1 million in health-care overspending and $123.2 million in unforeseen expenses in social services — essential funding Legacy said he could not cut.

“We have to provide that help,” he said.

“We’ve received a lot of information on environmental impacts,” Holt said at the time. “We haven’t received any information on economic impacts.”

To frack or not to frack? It’s one of many shale gas questions.

One 2014 study by economic development consultant David Campbell said 150 to 200 gas wells would boost New Brunswick’s economic output by between $1.4 billion and $1.8 billion.

It would also generate $258 million to $354 million in tax revenue, not including royalties that would be paid on gas, he estimated.

Adjusted for inflation, those figures would be $348 million to $478 million today, according to Statistic Canada calculations.

That would not be enough to eliminate a $1.7 billion deficit, but it would help.

Industry's return on investment

Another question mark is whether the geology of the gas formations allows it to be extracted at a reasonable cost for private industry.

The threshold for that is easier to meet today, according to natural gas trader Todd McDonald of Halifax-based Energy Atlantica, because gas prices are “significantly, significantly higher” now.

That would make it easier for companies to see a return on their investment.

McDonald, who brokers gas supply deals for major customers in Atlantic Canada, including power utilities and private industry, said if Holt’s review leads to an end to the moratorium, it could take five to 10 years for the sector to ramp up.

But some tax revenue could start flowing within three to seven years, he said.

Assurance of Indigenous support

Companies looking to invest would want an assurance that a future government wouldn’t change direction again, and that there’s enough public support now that large-scale protests won’t affect their operations, he said.

They would also want some assurance that the question of Indigenous consultation has been resolved.

Companies may also want a lower royalty rate to pay during the capital-intensive start-up phase of their operations, McDonald said.

“You’re going to have to sell them on coming here,” he said.

“So many things went wrong [in 2013 and 2014] that to convince them to come back, you’re going to hold their hand a little bit and give them some incentives.”

The Alward government unveiled a two-tier structure like that in 2013.

“At the same time, these are for-profit companies and they’re going to try and get the best deal,” McDonald said.

“So New Brunswick has to be wary of that and say, ‘Hey, we want the best deal too. This is our resource.’”

There’s another political upside to a domestic gas supply for the Liberals.

With provincial approval now in place for N.B. Power’s planned natural gas generating station in Tantramar, energy consumers will be more reliant on the gas carried into the province from the United States via the Maritimes and Northeast pipeline.

“As trade with our closest neighbour is thrown into question yet again, now is the time to secure our autonomy and protect our sovereignty,” Holt said when she announced the review.

Any link that can be drawn to U.S. tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump is likely to be a winner.

The business case for the power plant will benefit if it can use local gas, which would be cheaper without the cost of shipping it over long distances by pipeline, McDonald said.

The review is set to be completed by January.

If the Liberals get to yes, and natural gas royalty revenue is on the horizon, however distant, it may take some pressure off them to act on the deficit.

If the answer is no, they’ll have one fewer option to count on for their budget woes and may finally have to take a more aggressive approach to spending cuts.

Jacques Poitras has been CBC's provincial affairs reporter in New Brunswick since 2000. He grew up in Moncton and covered Parliament in Ottawa for the New Brunswick Telegraph-Journal. He has reported on every New Brunswick election since 1995 and won awards from the Radio Television Digital News Association, the National Newspaper Awards and Amnesty International. He is also the author of five non-fiction books about New Brunswick politics and history.