Starlink restrictions would hamper Ukraine's war effort. But the country can adapt, experts say

Starlink restrictions would hamper Ukraine's war effort. But the country can adapt, experts say

SpaceX interrupted functioning of military-grade terminals, Ukrainian officials say

Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, then-Ukrainian vice-prime minister Mykhailo Fedorov went on what was then known as Twitter to publicly plead with Elon Musk to activate his company SpaceX's Starlink satellites for use in the country.

Soon after, Musk posted, "Starlink service is now active in Ukraine. More terminals en route."

Since then, Starlink and the military-grade version known as Starshield have been integral to Ukraine's war effort against Russia. Indeed, in February, Musk appeared to acquiesce to a request from Fedorov, who most recently served as Ukraine's defence minister, to block Russia's access to Starlink.

But earlier this week, according to Ukrainian officials, its military lost some access to the system.

By Thursday, Starshield's satellite internet functionality had been restored, Reuters reported, citing a source in Ukraine's Defence Ministry.

It's still not clear why the restrictions would have been imposed. In a post on X on Wednesday, Musk said Starshield systems are owned and controlled by the U.S. government and that any limits would have been ordered by the U.S military and ultimately the president.

He added that use of Starlink "is limited to civilian or defensive activities and cannot be used for offensive military action, as doing so would be inappropriate for a commercial company."

So far, there has been no response from the U.S. government. But the restrictions come as U.S. President Donald Trump has criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for attacking Russian refineries, which he blames for the high cost of oil.

Here's a look at how the Ukrainian military has used Starlink, and what impact these restrictions could have on its capabilities.

How does Ukraine's military use Starlink?

Starlink is a satellite internet network of more than 11,000 satellites with roughly 13 million subscribers. Its low Earth orbit satellites around the planet deliver faster connections than traditional counterparts.

Starlink gave Ukraine a critical communications advantage early in the war, reshaping how militaries operate on the battlefield. But Musk has since restricted Starlink for certain military uses, instead developing Starshield, a more secure network, for government and military purposes.

Ukraine has used the technology for both offensive and defensive operations, with the military using thousands of terminals connected to the system, according to the New York Times.

A September 2022 photo shows an antenna of the Starlink satellite-based broadband system donated by Elon Musk, in Izyum, Ukraine. (Yasuyoshi Chiba/AFP/Getty Images)

The network is used for long-range drone missions, interceptor air defence systems and front-line logistics, according to a recent social media post from Serhii Beskrestnov, defence tech adviser to Zelenskyy.

He said the system has been key for Ukraine’s aerial defence and helped intercept the drones that Moscow has unleashed on cities in the country in recent months.

"It's just an incredibly capable communication system that has proven very valuable to the Ukrainians," said Thomas Withington, a military sciences associate fellow with the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, in an interview with CBC News.

He said the military has tended to use it primarily for tactical and operational communications. For example, if a deployed unit near the front line needs to communicate back with commanders hundreds of kilometres away, "Starlink provides an excellent way of doing that," Withington said.

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He added that Starlink is also beneficial in that its system is very difficult to jam or use electronic warfare against.

Renard Sexton, an associate political science professor at Emory University and managing director of the Empirical Studies of Conflict, said that Starlink was crucial to the Ukrainians' ability to push back against Russia's initial invasion in 2022.

Sexton added that his research has found that in certain moments when Starlink was less accessible, the Ukrainian offence suffered much more than its defence.

What restrictions were imposed?

Earlier this week, SpaceX started to interrupt the functioning of its military-grade terminals when they are moving at high speed, Ukrainian officials said.

According to Beskrestnov, the Zelenskyy adviser, that included imposing a speed limit on Starlink terminals mounted on drones.

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said on Wednesday that a decision to restrict access to Starlink would have been made by the U.S government and military. (Julia Demaree Nikhinson/The Associated Press)

The limit disrupted operations, including making the slower-flying attack drones easier targets for Russian defences, he said.

The speed cutoff also hampered Ukraine's ability to conduct strikes on Russian targets inside Ukraine, Reuters reported.

How could the restrictions impact Ukraine's military effort?

There could be quite a significant impact on the Ukrainian army's operational level communications and its use of drones, said Withington.

"Depriving that capability through a stalling deprivation is quite serious," he said.

But the Ukrainians are incredibly innovative, Sexton said, and a restriction that might have hurt them two years ago likely hurts them a lot less now due to their ability to adapt.

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"They're less likely to be relying fully on that as their only option for a given scenario," he said. "So I think there's more redundancy."

Withington agreed, saying that while the restriction is a serious inconvenience, the Ukrainians, together with their European allies, would be able to engineer workaround solutions that reduce its severity.

"It can't be done ... tomorrow, but it probably could be done in a matter of months, if not shorter."

That could include using existing capacity in both government- and private-sector-provided satellite communications in Europe, as well as looking at other systems, he said.

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However, Sexton said while the Ukrainians could adapt to a short-term Starlink restriction, he cautioned that a prolonged or complete inability to access it "would be a big issue for them."

"There's no question. They don't have any way to replace it in the short run."

Sexton said he wouldn't go so far to say that it would turn the tide of the war, as at this point the conflict seems to have calcified, with both sides having difficulties making significant progress.

But he said that a long restriction could mean that any prospect of a future counteroffensive, or any prospect of holding out forever, would certainly become more difficult for Ukraine.

Mark Gollom is a Toronto-based reporter with CBC News. He covers Canadian and U.S. politics and current affairs.

With files from The Associated Press, Reuters