Too soon to declare a recession, says Canada's unofficial authority on calling them

Too soon to declare a recession, says Canada's unofficial authority on calling them

Council of economists says weakness is not widespread or persistent enough to warrant the label

The unofficial authority on recession calls in Canada says it's too soon to use that word to describe the sluggish economy.

Debate has raged on Parliament Hill over whether the country is in a recession since Statistics Canada reported last week that the economy shrank for two quarters in a row.

The C.D. Howe Institute's Business Cycle Council is traditionally viewed as the arbiter for calling a recession in Canada.

Two quarters of GDP decline in a row is a rule of thumb that some economists use to point to a technical recession. But the council said in a bulletin on Friday that it does not accept that definition as the true measure, and urges caution over reading too much into the recent data.

What's a technical recession — and is Canada in one?

Earlier this week, panel member of the Business Cycle Council Steven Ambler told CBC News the group measures three "Ps" to determine if economic activity decline is pronounced, persistent and pervasive enough to declare a recession.

The group of economists argues that weakness in Canada's economy is not yet widespread or persistent enough to warrant the recession label, and the marginal decline in the first quarter of the year will be subject to revisions in the months ahead.

The recent GDP decline is also not as pronounced as when C.D. Howe has declared a recession in the past, according to the council.

In order to actually declare a recession, the council says it would need to see a significant decline in economic activity for at least one quarter and weakness in other recent quarters, plus a "pervasive decline" in many sectors of the economy.

Over the past week, the Conservatives have laid the blame for a "full-blown recession" at the feet of the Liberal government, while Prime Minister Mark Carney argues growth will be uneven as the government tries to pivot the economy away from reliance on the United States.

Statistics Canada also announced on Friday that the country's unemployment rate fell to 6.6 per cent in May, from 6.9 per cent a month before.

The agency's latest jobs report showed the first significant employment gain since November.