Why this firebrand leader's defeat is hailed as a win for democracy in India

India's Narendra Modi emerges stronger after West Bengal win, vowing development and stability

Narendra Modi says the latest election shows India's democracy is vibrant. (Reuters: Adnan Abidi)

Just two years ago, India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi was gifted a win that many said looked like a defeat.

But since then, his ruling Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) has been victorious in election after election, culminating this week with a conquest of West Bengal, a state that had long eluded the saffron outreach.

The landslide victory saw Mr Modi's party triumph over the All India Trinamool Congress Party (TMC), the incumbent for 15 years, winning 207 of the 293 seats.

Psephologist, Axis My India founder and managing director, Pradeep Gupta, told the ABC that a combination of factors, including anti-incumbency, deteriorating law and order, and the BJP's performance in other states, was behind the decisive win.

Pradeep Gupta says women's security was a big election issue in West Bengal. (Supplied: Pradeep Gupta)

Then there was the women factor, with West Bengal rocked by incidents of brutality, including the rape and murder of a trainee doctor at the RG Kar Medical College in 2024.

The mother of the victim, who accused the TMC government of shielding the culprits, fought and won a seat for the BJP in the election.

"There were so many atrocities … the rape and murder in RG Kar … we are talking about women's security."

Mamata Banerjee, centre, says she will not resign. (Reuters: Sahiba Chawdhary)

Both the TMC's firebrand leader Mamata Banerjee and BJP's Suvendu Adhikari have been accused of dividing Muslims and Hindus to gain votes.

Despite Narendra Modi's government allocating more funds than the previous government towards minorities, he is seen as anti-minorities, with critics saying his support of Hindus has led to his party's win in Bengal.

However, Ms Banerjee's opponents, including her ally at the federal level, Congress Party's Rahul Gandhi, have said her "polarisation of Bengal" created a space for BJP.

Mamata refuses to accept defeat

Ms Banerjee, who has also lost her Bhabanipur seat to the BJP's Suvendu Adhikari, has refused to accept the defeat, saying she will not resign.

Speaking outside the counting booth on Monday, local time, she accused the government of having "stolen" the election from her. Earlier, she cited the strong presence of central security forces intimidating her supporters.

Ms Banerjee also blamed the Election Commission of India's Special Intensive Revision, or SIR, an exercise undertaken regularly to verify and revise electoral rolls, for removing her support base, in particular Muslims.

The revision, which was also conducted in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, saw 9 million voters deleted, roughly 12 per cent of the electorate in West Bengal.

However, both BJP and the TMC interpret it differently, with BJP saying the exercise culled ineligible voters whose inclusion inflated the voter list to favour Ms Banerjee.

Mr Gupta said SIR had taken place in most parts of the country, not just West Bengal.

"People who were working outside the state [returned] … made sure they voted, and they voted in big numbers."

The BJP's national spokesman, Guru Prakash Paswan, said SIR was "purely a constitutional, legal, lawful exercise".

"Any allegations … are unfounded," Dr Paswan told the ABC.

"A peaceful voting must be a priority for a democracy."

He said West Bengal had given Mr Modi a mandate for politics that fundamentally reoriented governance toward direct delivery, welfare inclusion, and aspirational citizenship.

"The people of Bengal have endured decades of political violence, broken promises, and stalled aspirations," Dr Paswan said.

West Bengal was one of five states and territories that voted in April and May, with the BJP and its allies, the National Democratic Alliance, retaining neighbouring Assam and the former French colony Pondicherry, now known as Puducherry, and increasing its seat tally to three in the southern state of Kerala.

There were other upsets in the elections as well, with the last communist government in Kerala losing power to the Indian National Congress Party.

Tamil Nadu also had a surprise win, with a two-year-old party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, led by actor-turned-politician Joseph Vijay Chandrasekhar, unexpectedly emerging as the single-largest party, wrecking pre-poll alliances.

Jayanta Bairagi says the Bengali diaspora in Australia is overjoyed to see the government change. (Supplied: Jayanta Bairagi)

Australia's Bengali diaspora hails results

Melbourne Bengali Association secretary Jayanta Bairagi said there was a lot of excitement in the Bengali diaspora.

"People have been glued to the news," he said.

"Even before I started to brush my teeth, I turned on the television."

Mr Bairagi, who moved to Australia 26 years ago from Kolkata, the capital of West Bengal, said that when the TMC first came to power after the communists, there was a lot of expectation of good governance.

"But they failed to do what they promised — improving education, health and security," he said.

"Instead of creating jobs, they were more interested in giving handouts to expand their party's influence."

Mr Bairagi said people were looking for a change.

"Good that BJP has come," he said.

BJP increases footprint across India

The West Bengal win will also be felt at the national level, with the BJP's seats in the upper house set to increase, giving it more influence.

The party now governs 22 states and union territories across India, rising from just two seats in 1984.

Mr Gupta said the BJP had finally crossed over to the non-Hindi-speaking parts of India.

"Now the BJP is ruling 78 per cent of the population of India," he said.

"It is purely delivery, delivery, delivery … people believe in the … policies and social welfare schemes."

Mr Gupta said some of Ms Banerjee's policies, like restricting Hindu festivals, had angered people in West Bengal, with accusations that the government was trying to woo the "27 per cent consolidated Muslim vote".

However, Mr Gupta said many Muslims also turned away from TMC, voting for other minor parties.

Abhijit Majumder says the high-profile rape of a trainee doctor was a turning point. (Supplied: Abhijit Majumder)

CNN-News 18 consulting editor Abhijit Majumder, who was born in West Bengal, told the ABC there was "tremendous resentment" towards the Mamata Banerjee government.

"In my memory, there has not been a state government that has faced this kind of allegations of complete law and order collapse … no aspect of day-to-day life has been untouched by scams," he said.

"The RG Kar rape and murder was an inflection point for the women. There was a spontaneous outbreak of protests."

With no compulsory voting, the voter turnout in West Bengal's 2026 election was an impressive 92.47 — higher than Australia's turnout at the last federal election — and the highest in the state since India's independence in 1947, with people returning from across the country to exercise their democratic right.

After the results were counted on Monday, Mr Modi donned a traditional Bengali dhuti and thanked euphoric party workers for their "years of discipline" and hard work.

"You have created a new history," he said.

"Friends, wins and defeats are a natural part of the fabric of democracy and elections, but the people of five states have shown why India is the mother of democracy … it is part of our culture."

The TMC had refused to implement a key federal government initiative called Ayushman Bharat, which provided free health coverage to the state's poorest, with West Bengal being the only state in the country without it.

In his speech on Monday, Mr Modi said the state would get the scheme in the first cabinet meeting.

"Our mantra is the citizen is akin to god. We are committed to serving the people, and that is why the citizens trust the BJP," he said.

Mr Modi called on every party to end political violence.

"So many BJP women workers had to suffer unimaginable atrocities. This win belongs to all those workers and their families and the people of Bengal," he said.

"From today, Bengal is free of fear, has trust in future development.

"The talk should not be of revenge but renewal. I promise every Bengali, BJP will work day and night for a better future of Bengal. Women will be safe, and the youth will have jobs."

The ABC contacted the Trinamool Congress Party for comment, but they did not respond before publication.