WTO Says AI Investment Keeps Global Trade Above Trend Despite War

WTO Says AI Investment Keeps Global Trade Above Trend Despite War

Demand for electronic components related to artificial intelligence helped offset headwinds from the conflict in the Middle East and kept global merchandise trade resilient in the first half of the year, the World Trade Organization (WTO) said in a Friday (June 5) press release.

The organization’s latest Goods Trade Barometer showed that on a barometer on which values greater than 100 represent above-trend trade volumes, electronic components were gauged at 105.5, per the release.

Electronic components outpaced the barometer’s five other categories of goods trade, including container shipping at 102.4, air freight at 102.2, export orders at 100.5, automotive products at 99.8 and raw materials at 98.9, according to the release.

“The negative impact of the Middle East conflict may have been partly offset by surging demand for electronic components related to AI investment,” the release said.

The overall figure for the Goods Trade Barometer was gauged at 101.7, which is down slightly from the January value of 102.3 but still above the baseline value of 100, according to the release.

“On balance, the indices show signs of resilience, signaling relatively stable global merchandise trade growth,” the release said.

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In a Friday post on social platform X, the WTO said: “Goods trade holding up despite Middle East conflict and high energy prices.”

Goods trade holding up despite Middle East conflict and high energy prices #WTOStats#GlobalTrade https://t.co/WIjSKgMIuK pic.twitter.com/aAGyVj6kFK

The WTO highlighted the contribution of AI to world trade in two earlier reports.

In October, the organization said AI-related goods accounted for nearly half of the overall growth in world merchandise trade in the first half of 2025. In its Global Trade Outlook and Statistics released at the time, the WTO said that while AI-related products accounted for 15% of global imports and exports during that period, they made up 43% of global trade growth.

The WTO added in October that much of the momentum for AI-related trade had shifted beyond the United States, with Asian suppliers and emerging markets playing a greater role.

“This reinforces the view that the expansion of AI-related trade is not entirely driven by recent trade policy developments but represents a broader structural wave of investment in digital infrastructure,” the WTO said at the time.

In September, the WTO said AI could transform global trade by 2040. In its 2025 World Trade Report, the organization said that with the right policies in place, AI could increase the value of cross-border flows of goods and services by nearly 40% by 2040, due to productivity gains and lower trade costs.

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