CAQ fatigue key to sovereignist PQ's historic victory, fragile government

CAQ fatigue key to sovereignist PQ's historic victory, fragile government

St-Pierre Plamondon vows to hold referendum in 1st term, even though government on a short leash

Quebecers have elected a sovereignist government, even though most of them aren't in favour of a separatist vote.

But this is different from 2014.

When Pauline Marois’s version of the Parti Québécois (PQ) was pegged to form a minority government, there was no clear timeline on a potential referendum.

The current leader and soon-to-be premier Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has insisted for years that a referendum should be held within the first four years of a PQ term.

Yet, three decades after the 1995 sovereignty referendum, Quebec's historic political cleavage — and the PQ's raison d’être — did not prevent the party from forming a minority government.

In his victory speech, St-Pierre Plamondon said that "francophones’ struggle in America" will find meaning once Quebecers get a country and the recognition that comes with that.

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"We deserve it just as much as all other peoples who have their own country and democracy," he told a crowd at the PQ headquarters in Montreal. "It is a matter of justice and equity, but it is also a matter of survival."

Voters chose change — even if they don't want referendum

Last December, about a month before announcing his resignation, former premier François Legault predicted that the Quebec general election would result in a battle between the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), the party he co-founded, and the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ).

"Everyone will understand that [PQ Leader Paul] St-Pierre Plamondon equals a referendum we don’t want," Legault told Radio-Canada host Patrice Roy. "He’ll go down in the polls."

But Legault was wrong. The thirst for change after eight years of the CAQ in government seemed to overpower concerns about a referendum.

Throughout the campaign, St-Pierre Plamondon often posed the rhetorical question, “Do we really want 12 years of the CAQ?”

Voters resolutely decided they didn’t.

The end result: the CAQ was obliterated, left with no seats in the National Assembly. And despite the best efforts from CAQ Leader Christine Fréchette and PLQ Leader Charles Milliard, sovereignty did not act as an effective wedge issue in this campaign.

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Polls have consistently shown that sovereignty is a low priority of Quebecers, with one Léger poll showing that 70 per cent of Quebecers would not support separating from Canada.

But the electoral math told a different story.

In a remarkable feat made possible by the first-past-the-post electoral system, the PQ formed a minority government with as little as 28 per cent of the popular vote — the lowest voter share to achieve that in Quebec's history, and one that is certain to add fuel to the debate about electoral reform.

Parti Québécois leader addresses English-speaking Quebecers in victory speech

Given the sovereignty project's timeline — with a vote pushed to 2029 or 2030, after U.S. President Donald Trump leaves office — a referendum seems distant, if not entirely unlikely given the government's fragility.

What is certain, though, is that Quebecers gave St-Pierre Plamondon a short leash, forcing him to work alongside other parties, namely the Liberals and the PCQ, who would block any legislation opening the door to a referendum.

The PQ’s costed platform estimates that a sovereignty referendum would cost $130 million.

All parties benefit from CAQ’s collapse

Fréchette was the only leader not to have won their riding, signalling the CAQ's freefall.

At CAQ headquarters in Trois-Rivières, Que., Fréchette — who spent much of the campaign attempting to distance herself from Legault, even omitting the CAQ logo from her posters — spent part of her 10-minute concession speech thanking him.

CAQ Leader Christine Fréchette takes ownership of party’s fall in concession speech

Taking over from the CAQ’s founder, especially after the party’s popularity had waned, was an expected uphill battle.

Compounding the challenge, Fréchette had previously served as a prominent CAQ cabinet member leading the ministries of immigration, francisation, and economy — portfolios that cast a shadow over any image of renewal she tried to project for a declining party.

Fréchette also attempted to position herself as best equipped to defend Quebec against Trump, whom she called her "main opponent." However, as premier, her ability to face the U.S. president head-on is inherently limited. Claims of foreign interference, drummed up by members of Fréchette’s team weeks before the election, did little to help her credibility either.

The CAQ’s losses were to the benefit of opposition parties, particularly the Conservatives, who experienced a historic breakthrough achieved through targeted campaigns in the Quebec City area.

Quebec Conservative Leader Éric Duhaime projected to win seat in Bellechasse riding

The Conservatives won 19 ridings — the party’s first elected seats in 90 years. It was a celebratory moment for PCQ Leader Éric Duhaime, who on his third attempt as leader managed to capture a seat in the Chaudière-Appalaches region.

It remains to be seen whether St-Pierre Plamondon, like so many leaders before him — including Legault — will keep his promise to reform the electoral system that led him to power.