Carney's lead over Poilievre may be more about vibes than policies, new poll suggests

OTTAWA — Do Canadians currently prefer Prime Minister Mark Carney’s ideas over those of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s or do they simply trust Carney more than Poilievre? A new Postmedia-Leger poll suggests the difference between the two may largely be based on vibes.

To test the theory, the pollster chose six policy positions on which Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives broadly share similar objectives, even if their proposed approaches may somewhat differ.

The 1,514 online poll sample was then randomly split into two equal groups: 757 respondents were asked how much they trusted Carney on each policy when he said they were good for Canada, while 757 were asked the same questions about Poilievre. The policy positions were identical for both groups; only the leader referenced in the questions changed.

The results were unequivocal: no matter the policy, respondents trusted Carney more than Poilievre when either man said a policy would be good for Canada. The gap ranged from nine to 14 points.

That’s roughly the same lead the Liberals have held over the Conservatives in polling since Carney was elected prime minister last spring, Leger executive vice-president Andrew Enns noted in an interview. In this poll, despite a two point drop, the Liberals (46 per cent) still hold a 12 point lead over the Conservatives (34 per cent).

The poll suggests that while Carney’s reputation still affords him the benefit of the doubt from Canadians, Poilievre still has a tone and image problem to overcome if he wants to defeat the Liberals, Enns added.

The pollster noted that while Poilievre has years of political “reputational baggage,” Carney is still a relatively new politician with professional experience that clearly impresses many Canadians.

“You look at the two party leaders from a substance standpoint; they’re coming at things very similarly. (Carney’s) got probably more of a resume advantage… and probably has a style advantage. Or maybe Poilievre has the style disadvantage because… he generates a pretty negative reaction for a lot of people, just seeing the guy,” Enns said in an interview.

The policy positions put to respondents of the poll were that Canada needs to: