LIVE: Parti Québécois projected to form minority government in Quebec election

Global News projects the Parti Québécois will form a minority government in Quebec, marking a dramatic political comeback and setting the stage for a potential third referendum on sovereignty.

The party was leading in 59 of the province’s 127 ridings just after 10 p.m. after polls closed across the province two hours earlier on Monday.

Prime Minister Mark Carney congratulated Quebec premier-designate Paul St-Pierre Plamondon.

Congratulations, Premier-designate @PaulPlamondon, on your election victory.

Building a stronger Québec is core to our mission of building a stronger Canada. I look forward to working with you to support Québec’s businesses and workers impacted by tariffs, create more good jobs,…

— Mark Carney (@MarkJCarney) October 6, 2026

“I look forward to working with you to support Québec’s businesses and workers impacted by tariffs, create more good jobs, work to end homelessness, and get more homes built across Québec,” he wrote in his statement.

He also thanked outgoing Premier Christine Fréchette, whose CAQ party was on track to not win any seats.

“Thank you, Premier @CFrechette, for your service to Québec and to Canada. We got a lot done together — from Churchill Falls to one of the largest infrastructure investments in Québec’s history. I wish you all the best in what comes next.”

Among the key wins Monday night were Québec solidaire co-spokespeople Ruba Ghazal and Sol Zanetti, Conservative Party of Quebec Leader Éric Duhaime and Quebec Liberal Party Leader Charles Milliard, all of whom secured their seats in the National Assembly after high-profile campaigns.

Duhaime was the first candidate to be elected under the Conservative banner in modern history, although the party has had a recent presence in the legislature in former CAQ member Maïté Blanchette Vézina, who crossed the floor.

As of 11 p.m., the Liberals were leading in 40 ridings, the Conservatives in 19, Québec solidaire in nine and the incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec in none.

Throughout the campaign, PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon pledged to launch a referendum to separate Quebec from Canada if his party forms government, but not before U.S. President Donald Trump leaves office in 2029.

After two straight CAQ majority governments, St-Pierre Plamondon spent most of his campaign on the offensive, capitalizing on Quebecers’ desire for change.

“The change you are hoping for is in your hands,” St-Pierre Plamondon said as he went to cast his own ballot in his eastern Montreal riding of Camille-Laurin.

He added that he was proud of his party’s campaign, noting it was the only one to visit all of the province’s regions. He spent his last day of the campaign in Montreal, where the PQ is hoping to flip seats after a decade of weak PQ support.

The mood was festive at a PQ watch party in Montreal as the results started coming in, with many supporters dressed in blue and white.

St-Pierre Plamondon’s rivals ended their campaigns by warning voters against choosing a party that will trigger a referendum.

Quebec Liberal Leader Charles Milliard voted in North Hatley, in Quebec’s Eastern Townships region, where he was elected for the first time. Milliard said he was confident but taking nothing for granted.

Coalition Avenir Québec Leader Christine Fréchette voted in the central Quebec riding of Trois-Rivières, taking a final shot at the PQ’s sovereignty aspirations. “I’m inviting Quebecers to reflect about what happens next,” she said. “Do they want a government who will commit us to a referendum campaign that shakes up everything, or to remain with a government that is betting on economic stability and improving services?”

Ruba Ghazal, the Québec solidaire co-spokesperson, also voted in the Montreal-area riding of Mercier, where she was re-elected for a third time. “We’ve been talking about this for 40 days,” said Ghazal as she arrived at the polling station. “Today, it is Quebecers who will have their say.”

Quebec Conservative Leader Éric Duhaime voted in a riding on the south shore of Quebec City. “The election campaign is over,” Duhaime said. “Today, Quebecers have a unique opportunity to continue to show our commitment to our democracy.”

When the election was called, the CAQ held 79 seats, the Liberals had 18, Québec solidaire 11 and the PQ held seven seats. There were nine Independents and one Conservative.

Throughout the campaign Fréchette had said her party was the only one that was offering an alternative to the province’s sovereigntist-federalist dichotomy, by focusing on nationalism and economic growth within Canada.

Fréchette said she was proud of her campaign, but also expressed regret over failing to put more emphasis on the threat posed by a referendum.

“It’s important for people to realize this, because it’s not just a decision that could affect Quebec in three years,” she said Sunday. “There will be impacts because uncertainty will become part of Quebec’s political and economic calendar.”

Fréchette ended her campaign by door-knocking in her riding.

Milliard described his party on Sunday as the only federalist option. He urged voters who want to avoid a PQ government to vote strategically for his candidates.

He warned that a PQ minority would be seeking support for a referendum among the other parties.

“One party that Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon won’t be calling up is the Liberal Party of Quebec, because we’re proudly federalist and not ashamed to say it,” he said.

During a campaign stop Sunday in St-Victor, Que., Milliard said his party had gained momentum since the start of the campaign, when he was criticized for not having a picture of himself on his party’s campaign bus — an image that was added later. He said the Liberal vote was likely underestimated in certain regions.

Duhaime, meanwhile, urged his supporters to cast enough votes on Monday to give his party a strong voice in the legislature. Duhaime has promised to use his leverage to act as a “guard dog” that will protect taxpayer interests and attempt to block a referendum vote.

The Quebec Conservatives haven’t won a seat under Duhaime’s leadership, but they are expected to make a breakthrough that could give them the balance of power if no party wins a majority in the legislature. Duhaime said he’s hoping his party wins at least 12 seats and official party status.

“I’m very, very serene, and I have confidence,” Duhaime said. “The only thing is, we have to make sure people go out and vote.”

In Montreal, Ghazal was making a final appeal to progressive sovereigntist voters who don’t identify with the “austerity” proposed by the PQ, and other parties, including Duhaime’s Conservatives.

“Send a signal that not all of Quebec has swung to the right or turned conservative, and also send people who will be the only ones to stand up to Éric Duhaime’s influence in the next parliament,” she said on Sunday.

Élections Québec said nearly 30 per cent of eligible voters had cast their ballots by the middle of the day.

–with files from The Canadian Press