Prediction markets are taking big bets on Ontario municipal races. Here's what the rules say

Bettors could be Canadians using VPNs to sidestep Canadian rules, says expert

People are betting on Ontario's municipal elections. Is that allowed?

Betting on the outcome of elections on prediction markets isn’t allowed in Canada — but that’s not stopping websites like Polymarket and Kalshi from taking hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of wagers on who will win Ontario’s municipal races this October.

On Polymarket, for example, close to $400,000 has been spent so far on bets about who will be the next Toronto mayor, while about $43,000 has been spent on Kalshi.

Similar wagers have been set up for places like Oshawa, Oakville and Mississauga, with total accumulated bets ranging from about $5,000 to about $40,000. There is also some betting happening on the online "social prediction game" Manifold, which uses play money instead of real currency.

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Though there's nothing illegal about a non-Canadian prediction market taking bets on Canadian elections, Ontarians themselves aren't allowed to participate.

Prediction markets, which allow users to bet on nearly any kind of event, are regulated here, with wagers limited to predictions on climate, financial markets or economic indicators, and available solely through dealers authorized by the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO).

Polymarket is also currently riding out a two-year ban in Ontario, after the Ontario Securities Commission argued that the website broke provincial securities law in 2025.

Using VPNs to hop over digital fences

Even though it’s not allowed here, it wouldn’t be difficult for Canadians interested in betting on municipal elections to do so, says Cristie Ford, an associate professor at the University of British Columbia who focuses on financial regulation.

“You can use a VPN to conceal your physical location, or the location of your computer in Canada, to make it look as though you're outside of Canada,” she said.

A Polymarket spokesperson told CBC News the platform “strictly prohibits the use of VPNs or similar tools to bypass geographic restrictions,” adding that it carries out monitoring and reviews to detect users doing so.

Kalshi spokesperson Dani Lever says the platform has seen "no evidence" of the use of VPNs to bet on Ontario races.

"We restrict election markets in Canada. Because we verify every user’s identity and residency at signup, using a VPN does not get around that restriction," she wrote.

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The real risk with the betting, and the reason it's not allowed, says Ford, is the possible skewing of public perception of the candidate’s chances in a way that could impact election results.

“By making it look as though there's momentum behind a particular candidate, you can potentially affect whether or not people show up to vote,” she said.

Nelson Pang, a PhD candidate at the University of Toronto who studies risk-taking behaviour among young people, says that group is particularly at risk of making unwise betting decisions on the platforms, with a lot of industry marketing and advertising targeted toward young men.

CBC News asked both of Toronto's leading mayoral candidates — Olivia Chow and Brad Bradford — about their reaction to the wagers.

“I am certainly not engaged in any of that,” said Bradford. He encouraged people to vote, not bet, saying it's the “only way” to make political change.

Chow, speaking at a campaign event promoting libraries, said that she hasn’t looked at the platforms but that it’s up to other levels of government to finetune their regulations.

“That’s a whole lot of money,” she added. “Maybe that money could be donated to the library foundation.”

While the risks of this kind of wager may be clear — it’s trickier to identify how Canadian authorities plan to go about preventing them from happening.

The Ontario Securities Commission (OSC), which banned Polymarket, says it expects all parties subject to its orders and settlement agreements to comply with their obligations.

The Canadian Securities Administrators (CSA), meanwhile, said its members that are tasked with using their "rule-making and enforcement powers to help safeguard investors" using prediction markets.

The OSC did not respond to questions about any further plans to address the possibility that Ontarians are breaking the rules.

In its response to CBC News, CIRO spokesperson Ariel Visconti reiterated its rules around which topics and investment dealers are authorized, but didn’t describe any further steps to improve regulation enforcement.

“If an investor uses a VPN or other means to circumvent geographic restrictions to access these platforms, they are not protected by the regulatory safeguards that apply when trading through a CIRO-regulated investment dealer,” wrote Visconti.

Kate McGillivray is a writer and newsreader in Toronto. She's worked for the CBC in Montreal, Sherbrooke and St. John's, and she always wants to hear your feedback and story ideas. Get in touch here: kate.mcgillivray@cbc.ca.

With files from Ali Chiasson and Derick Deonarain