USMNT

Despite Folarin Balogun no longer being suspended for the United States-Belgium game, the betting odds for Monday’s round of 16 clash are still basically a coin toss.

Balogun was initially going to have to sit out the match after getting a red card against Bosnia and Herzegovina last round, but the suspension has been… suspended. That means the U.S. will have the 25-year-old striker, who has scored three times in three games, for one of the biggest matches in the national team’s history.

Even with Balogun eligible to play, the odds didn’t move much. FanDuel has barely budged from it being a true pick ’em. In fact, Belgium is a small favorite at -112 to advance with the U.S. at -108, even after the Balogun news. DraftKings started with matching odds as well, but had already shifted to the Americans being -120 to advance by Saturday. Soon after the Balogun news came out, the U.S. moved to -125 to advance while Belgium is even money on DraftKings. BetMGM has the U.S. as small favorites at -115 to advance with Belgium -110.

The point is, this match was viewed as a coin flip in the odds as soon as the Americans beat Bosnia to advance, and it is still in that range now that Balogun can play. Before the tournament, this match likely would’ve had Belgium as the favorite, but things have changed in recent weeks.

Here’s a look at the odds for this match, plus the updated futures odds for the Americans to make history with a deep run.

TV: Fox (English), Telemundo (Spanish)

American fans can be proud of the win against Bosnia and Herzegovina because wins in the knockout stage of the World Cup are incredibly rare for the U.S. That 2-0 win was technically the country’s second victory in the knockouts. The U.S. making the final 16 of a World Cup, however, is not nearly as rare.

The U.S. reached this round four years ago and has now done so in six of the last nine World Cups. The American men had become pretty good at getting out of the group stage in the tournament’s previous 32-team format. It was what came after that proved incredibly difficult.

Since 1994, the U.S. is 1-4 in this round. One of those four losses came against Belgium in 2014. When Curaçao goalkeeper Eloy Room tied the World Cup single-game save record with 15 saves against Ecuador in the group stage, the mark he tied was set by former U.S. keeper Tim Howard 12 years ago against Belgium. The United States was under siege in that game, but managed to go to extra time before losing 2-1.

Goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois, midfielder Kevin De Bruyne and striker Romelu Lukaku are still around from that Belgium team. In this tournament, Lukaku has scored twice, including on Wednesday against Senegal. De Bruyne is still the main playmaker, and Courtois is starting in goal.

No one from that U.S. team in 2014 is on the 2026 roster.

De Bruyne, now 35, and star winger Jérémy Doku were subbed off in the 56th minute Wednesday, with Belgium trailing Senegal 2-0. At the time, it seemed like a radical move for manager Rudi Garcia to take off arguably his two most talented players. But Lukaku, who subbed in at halftime, scored in the 86th minute to give Belgium a chance, before Youri Tielemans tied the game three minutes later. Belgium won in extra time with a late penalty kick.

Lukaku will present a big target for the U.S. defense to manage, but he might not start in the Round of 16. The 33-year-old has started only once this tournament.

That Belgium-Senegal match took place in Seattle, just like the U.S.-Belgium game will. Belgium, like the U.S., has played on the West Coast the entire tournament. The Red Devils also played in Seattle for their opening match against Egypt.

Belgium’s midfield, led by De Bruyne and Tielemans, is by far the best the Americans will have seen at this World Cup, but it hasn’t always looked pretty. The Red Devils tied Egypt and Iran with lackluster attacking play and looked beaten against Senegal before the miraculous comeback.

Before the tournament, Belgium was solidly ahead of the U.S. in the odds to win it all. That flipped after the U.S. had two dominant wins to start group play and Belgium had draws in two games they were favored to win.

On the American side, having Balogun eligible keeps the momentum he and the team had been building since the start of the tournament. Balogun scored his third goal of the tournament late in the first half against Bosnia, but was given a red card in the second half. Balogun has been a breakout star, and his presence changes how the U.S. attacks.

Some fireworks are expected in this one. Over 2.5 goals is favored and both teams to score is solidly favored at -176 on FanDuel and -200 on DraftKings. Two of the Americans’ group games saw both teams score while that has happened in three of Belgium’s four matches so far.

While the U.S. has a solid chance against Belgium, the Americans are still heavy underdogs to go much further. With a potential meeting with Spain in the quarterfinals, the U.S. is between +320 and +330 to reach the semifinals, implying a less than 25 percent chance.

To make the final, the Americans are 11-1 on DraftKings and 12-1 on FanDuel. If you’re dreaming of an American World Cup title, DK has that at 23-1 while FD has it at 25-1.